Risk taking: the mark of the powerful and successful… or just a side effect of optimism?

Risk taking is a personality trait that gets a lot of polarized views, many try to discourage it, others admire it for it is the stuff of mighty heroes and warrior queens! Or any other good description.

While it is certain that risk takers are more likely to shape the world with their decisions, as they are the inventors, the entrepreneurs, the next Zuckerberg, etc. they are also much more likely to become financially bankrupt, social outcasts, criminals or a joke inside of their community, you name it. 

Old and modern psychology have spent a great deal of time pondering why some people are risk averse and others not. Theories from adrenaline addiction to subconscious thoughts of superiority have been uttered, going back to evolutionary psychology in the quest for answers, telling us successful tribesmen were also masters of risk assessment so their genes were passed. All this has originated heated debates and sarcastic replies.

But what about optimists?

Meet your next Mr. Entrepreneur

Optimism is a blessing to anyone born with it. And I say born because genes related to optimism and self-esteem have been identified.

At Least a part of it is genetic, not everyone agrees how much, but 50% is a fair number. The remaining 50% is self-determination, emotional skills and environmental influence.

A positive look on life and one’s role in it is related to better overall health, more chances of success, increased networking potential, a higher paying job and even a longer life. Talk about genetic jackpot.

Yet we only seem to perceive the lucky optimists. The ones whose adventures and ideas have gone mostly well, or atleast have failed without getting their owners killed, poor or in jail. 

What seems to be more common is stories about a promising young lad wasting his 20s and 30s in some insane idea “that would net him millions!” or a steadily growing business making a really risky decision and coming out with the short end of the stick… or no stick and no business. Those rarely are registered as "optimists".

From a previous discussion in this blog we can gather that luck is a dominant factor in the results people obtain in areas of life. But going out of your way to tempt it is another beast entirely.

But I said above that optimists have “better chances of success” didn’t they? There has to be something special on it!

Well… You have better chances at anything if you even try. You can’t have them if you don’t show up, 1% chance of success is higher than none.

That’s why we admire and encourage new enterprises, why books, movies and videogames are made on the premise of a big adventure after a treasure, as a society we need these people to go out into the world and chase their dreams... dragons, delusions and all.

Deluding reason in the pursuit of success

If you want to find a sector of the population where optimists (and by logic, risk takers) concentrate just look for Entrepreneurs, CEOs, stock traders, gamblers and athletes. All these groups have something in common: They need to think they are very best in order to properly execute their life-style. 

Ironically, the risk itself is not the main factor when taking a big, unnecessary one for an overconfident CEO: “This is my chance and I will succeed!”; It’s the reward, the recognition, the money… the result is all that matters, for is all they can see… and to our minds What You See Is All There Is (another cognitive bias to discuss in the future).

Many of the greatest stories of success in the world seem to be a result of optimists taking the risks most of us wouldn’t dare, like Google, Apple or Microsoft did. But also some of the greatest failures and crimes were the result of someone who didn’t assess risk and consequence well.

Ever met a CEO or an athlete that looked gloomy and pessimistic about their current project? It’s quite uncommon. Those with such attitude rarely get far into the business and there are good reasons. No restaurant start up needs (or wants) to know there’s a 60% chance they’ll be out of business within the first 3 years.

Most will not hear a word of reason from experts that have studied thousands of similar cases previous to them. They are the exception, “this is the one project that will innovate the market!.” 

No matter if they don’t have previous experience in said market, or that hundreds of others have tried, are currently trying and will try in the future, glossing over the fact that well established competitors already have a share of what our young hypothetical optimist wants.

To properly imagine yourself as the one that will take the crown it requires a healthy dose of delusion, charged with grandeur. 

And all this might strike a perceptive analyst as a horrible case of arrogance. But it isn’t. 

It is the most important factor in the mind of a true sanguine optimist: hubris.

Extreme overconfidence and self-assurance make sure all those little details such as competitors, chances of success and future dangers get shoved back to a dark corner of the mind where they can make no noise. 

They lack the cautious fear of both the experienced and the expert who understand the fickleness of probability and if they internalized such information it a part of that optimist would forever die. A reason it's a lot more common to find optimists among the young.

What to take from this?

If we can learn something from optimists is their ability to resist obstacles and endure in the face of failure. Persistence and consistency will trump skill and talent most of the time and eventually, over time perhaps even luck can be defeated.

While it is important to know when to quit, I think a lot more of us need to learn when not to give up.

I might be a bit of an optimist by starting this blog. But I'm realist enough to thank you for coming here and reading.

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